Fire AggroTier 2
at Whimsy Store Championship
decks
1
(3.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
4-1-0
overall winrate
80.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.4%
avg ELO +5.4 per match
expected value
53.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1496
· median 1496
· range 1496–1496
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1062
Q1 1290
Q3 1470
1642
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 17.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.0 |
| Water Overlord | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.1 |
| Wind Exia | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Polkhawk | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Aggro decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
